In real life, the MVP award should be a no brainer. Advanced statistics have progressed to the point that we really can identify who the best players are and get a reasonably close approximation of how many runs or wins they contribute. The writers still often get it wrong because their job is to tell a story, not provide real analysis. They tend to focus too much on team success, dramatic home runs, and September batting average. Side note: if I had a vote in real life I'd vote for Pujols and A-Rod (with Sizemore a close second).
In HBD, it's much more difficult to choose an MVP. The stats we have are not easy to access and the ones we don't have leave us missing a piece of the puzzle. Players aren't necessarily known to everyone and since the GM's are doing the voting, they tend to vote for their own players if given the choice*.
*I have absolutely no evidence to back up this claim. I just assume you do. If you don't, good for you.
Season 9 has given us 5 great choices in each league, but no easy way to distinguish them. The most advanced stat available on the voting page is OPS. Which is nice, but kind of...well imperfect. See it's great for separating good players from mediocre ones, but lacks the precision needed for this analysis. 4 out of the 5 AL candidates have OPS's within 90 points of each other, with the fifth playing half his games in an extreme pitchers park. In the NL, it's even closer, a swing of only 50 points.
We can throw RBI out the window, it's a context driven stat that tells us very little. Batting average is also flawed both in general and when used to try to pick the best out of five great players. Home runs are great, but need a little bit of context - park effects can have a large influence.
So what do we do? We don't have stats like VORP, WARP, and Eqa to really shed light on the players' individual production. We don't have advanced fielding metrics to show who really shines on defense. And it's difficult to use ratings. Since none of us really knows what rating does what, how could we argue that player A and his 91 power & 85 eye is better than player B and his 92 VR & 84 power?
*if you do some digging you can get runs created, but I've never been a huge fan of this stat
So how did I vote? I'll explain in the next post.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Contribution from another owner
job314 was generous enough to send me the following post. He has been invited to become a regular contributor.
Here’s a general observation/question about rest and playing a guy every day, and here's a specific example of one high profile star in our world…
So the recent injury to rockstar T.J. Benoit has me thinking lately about the effects of fatigue. I’ve long been of the opinion that if you play a player fatigued his chance for injury is increased. How about a player’s production? Does his production go down too or stay pretty much the same?
I get pretty scared when I see less then 100% next to one of my players names. I had the liberty of clinching a playoff spot early, so I was able to rest my players often. Many other owners are still chasing playoff spots though and can’t send out a AAA call up at this point in the season. Lately I have been seeing many of my opponents with lineups containing multiple players below 100% fatigue. I think a lot of owners don't comprehend the risks or the effects it has on their players.
Case study: Take a look at Tampa Bay's 1B Daniel Giovanola. I have been watching this guy mostly because he is Danny York's biggest threat in the race for the NL MVP. Giovanola's durability is a lousy 71. His bat is spectacular but he clearly can not play a full season with that durability. How many games has he played? 162 games, and with very little rest as he had 639 ABs. This guy is hitting HRs like a juiced up Barry Bonds, with an incredible 76 of them. If you go back to the point in the season where Giovanola’s fatigue level dropped below 100%, it was after game 95. He hit 47 HRs during these 1st 95 games while playing at 100%. His home run rate during this time was 0.49 per game. He has hit 29 HRs in the 67 games since then, while playing at less then 100%. An HR rate of 0.43 per game, a slight drop you might say. However, Giovanola’s fatigue level has progressively dropped from game number 96 to game 162. Currently he is playing at an 85% fatigue level. Want to know how many HRs he has hit in last month? 10 HRs in 31 games, or about 0.32 HRs per game. So in the other 131 games this season he has hit 66 HRs or about 0.50 HRs per game. Clearly the more fatigued Giovanola is the fewer Home Runs he hits.
My intent is not to pick on Tampa Bay or Daniel Giovanola. I don't know all the circumstances behind Tampa Bay's linup decisions. This was simply an observation I noticed looking at stats for only 1 player.
Here’s a general observation/question about rest and playing a guy every day, and here's a specific example of one high profile star in our world…
So the recent injury to rockstar T.J. Benoit has me thinking lately about the effects of fatigue. I’ve long been of the opinion that if you play a player fatigued his chance for injury is increased. How about a player’s production? Does his production go down too or stay pretty much the same?
I get pretty scared when I see less then 100% next to one of my players names. I had the liberty of clinching a playoff spot early, so I was able to rest my players often. Many other owners are still chasing playoff spots though and can’t send out a AAA call up at this point in the season. Lately I have been seeing many of my opponents with lineups containing multiple players below 100% fatigue. I think a lot of owners don't comprehend the risks or the effects it has on their players.
Case study: Take a look at Tampa Bay's 1B Daniel Giovanola. I have been watching this guy mostly because he is Danny York's biggest threat in the race for the NL MVP. Giovanola's durability is a lousy 71. His bat is spectacular but he clearly can not play a full season with that durability. How many games has he played? 162 games, and with very little rest as he had 639 ABs. This guy is hitting HRs like a juiced up Barry Bonds, with an incredible 76 of them. If you go back to the point in the season where Giovanola’s fatigue level dropped below 100%, it was after game 95. He hit 47 HRs during these 1st 95 games while playing at 100%. His home run rate during this time was 0.49 per game. He has hit 29 HRs in the 67 games since then, while playing at less then 100%. An HR rate of 0.43 per game, a slight drop you might say. However, Giovanola’s fatigue level has progressively dropped from game number 96 to game 162. Currently he is playing at an 85% fatigue level. Want to know how many HRs he has hit in last month? 10 HRs in 31 games, or about 0.32 HRs per game. So in the other 131 games this season he has hit 66 HRs or about 0.50 HRs per game. Clearly the more fatigued Giovanola is the fewer Home Runs he hits.
My intent is not to pick on Tampa Bay or Daniel Giovanola. I don't know all the circumstances behind Tampa Bay's linup decisions. This was simply an observation I noticed looking at stats for only 1 player.
Playoff Preview (while slightly inebriated - GO CHARGERS!!!)
In the AL I have to start with the surprise Madison Muskies. Winning 2 out of 3 at Kansas City to tie for the division lead (not sure exactly how they won the tiebreaker) and they're in. And they have a decent chance in their series against Texas. The Chainsaws' lineup is still monstrous, but their pitching has been disappointing. If the Muskies can get some pitching, they could pull off the upset. (Before you write in, I know Madison is technically seeded higher, but the Chainsaws were better this year and are the favorites to win this series).
The AL South landed three teams in the playoffs, lead by 104 win Jacksonville, charging hard the final two weeks of the season and overtaking Louisville. The Red Strikers draw a favorable match up with Las Vegas but in a five game series anything can happen.
The Spliffsters earned the number 1 seed but it came with a price. As mentioned by job314 in a previous post, superstar TJ Benoit is out for the year, injured just a few days ago, long after Burlington had clinched the division.
The NL looks like a two horse race between Ottawa and Dover. If Vancouver gets past NY, they may be the only other team to challenge for the pennant.
The series between Santa Cruz and San Juan looks to be a tossup. I'll guess Santa Cruz in five but don't hold me to it.
I predict that Jacksonville and Lousiville will meet in the ALCS, with Jacksonville winning in six. In the NLCS I'll take Ottawa over Dover in seven.
And Jacksonville over Ottawa in six to take home the title.
Let the games begin.
The AL South landed three teams in the playoffs, lead by 104 win Jacksonville, charging hard the final two weeks of the season and overtaking Louisville. The Red Strikers draw a favorable match up with Las Vegas but in a five game series anything can happen.
The Spliffsters earned the number 1 seed but it came with a price. As mentioned by job314 in a previous post, superstar TJ Benoit is out for the year, injured just a few days ago, long after Burlington had clinched the division.
The NL looks like a two horse race between Ottawa and Dover. If Vancouver gets past NY, they may be the only other team to challenge for the pennant.
The series between Santa Cruz and San Juan looks to be a tossup. I'll guess Santa Cruz in five but don't hold me to it.
I predict that Jacksonville and Lousiville will meet in the ALCS, with Jacksonville winning in six. In the NLCS I'll take Ottawa over Dover in seven.
And Jacksonville over Ottawa in six to take home the title.
Let the games begin.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
So how did my predictions turn out? Part 2 - NL
NL North
Last year the Ottawa Omebas ran away with their division, finishing 17 games ahead of the second place Milwaukee Timberjacks. The Omebas set out on their quest to repeat as division champs by acquiring perennial all star and former MVP, Tyrone Knight. Knight will replace Shawn Lilly in right field this season and will add even more power to a lineup that scored 990 runs last season, good for 2nd most in the NL. Winner: Omebas Wild Card: None
Did anyone think Ottawa would be THIS good? Half credit since I didn't think Milwaukee would compete for a WC spot. Weird fact - The Omebas scored MORE runs last year. It's their pitching that really improved this year.
NL East
The NL East should an exciting division this year. There is a possibility of a three team race for the division featuring two of the most dynamic offenses in the league. The core of the Dover Soles that won 103 games last year remains intact, with the addition of closer Osvaldo Martinez the only major change. After breaking out with 101 wins last season, the Chicago Turgid Warriors will try to overtake the Soles for the division title this year. Chicago's key pickup was Dean Jordan, a 22 year old rule 5 selection. Jordan should have no problem hitting ML pitching, it's getting into the lineup that will be the problem. Not suited for full time catching duty, Jordan might be able to hide at first base. Winner: Turgid Warriors WC: Soles
Big fat zero. The Soles ran away with the division and Chicago and NY will probably miss out on the last WC spot.
NL South
No team in the South has ever won 100 games. With the addition of Hugh Boudreau this offseason, the San Juan Saints will have an improved offense and a good shot at winning 100. The Tampa Bay Grass Cats have a shot at the division with their good young starting pitching, but will need to improve their offense by ~100 runs to keep up with the Saints. Winner: Saints WC: None
Still no 100 game winner, but full credit. San Juan is up by 11 games and no other team has a realistic shot at the playoffs.
NL West
The Vancouver Beavers had kind of a down year last year, only winning 97 games. But msj22 is too good at stockpiling young talent to stay down for long. Look for this team to run away with the division, winning 105+ games. The Santa Cruz Tsunami will certainly hold their own in the wild card race this season. Their strong pitching staff is lead by Jimmie Nunez, still one of the best pitchers in the league, but he's 35 and his window of opportunity is narrowing. In order to challenge for a wild card spot, the Portland Gamblers will need to pick up an impact bat and replace the back end of their rotation will two major league capable starters. Outside of those improvements, the Gamblers will be lucky to finish more than a couple games over .500. Last year the San Francisco ROIDS scored 718 runs, last in the NL. Without addressing this offensive deficiency, they don't have a chance to compete. Look for them to continue building for the future. Winner: Beavers WC: Tsunami
Full credit for this one too. Bonus points for nailing the problems of the Gamblers and Roids.
50/100, 0/100, 100/100, 100/100 plus 10 bonus = 65%,
Last year the Ottawa Omebas ran away with their division, finishing 17 games ahead of the second place Milwaukee Timberjacks. The Omebas set out on their quest to repeat as division champs by acquiring perennial all star and former MVP, Tyrone Knight. Knight will replace Shawn Lilly in right field this season and will add even more power to a lineup that scored 990 runs last season, good for 2nd most in the NL. Winner: Omebas Wild Card: None
Did anyone think Ottawa would be THIS good? Half credit since I didn't think Milwaukee would compete for a WC spot. Weird fact - The Omebas scored MORE runs last year. It's their pitching that really improved this year.
NL East
The NL East should an exciting division this year. There is a possibility of a three team race for the division featuring two of the most dynamic offenses in the league. The core of the Dover Soles that won 103 games last year remains intact, with the addition of closer Osvaldo Martinez the only major change. After breaking out with 101 wins last season, the Chicago Turgid Warriors will try to overtake the Soles for the division title this year. Chicago's key pickup was Dean Jordan, a 22 year old rule 5 selection. Jordan should have no problem hitting ML pitching, it's getting into the lineup that will be the problem. Not suited for full time catching duty, Jordan might be able to hide at first base. Winner: Turgid Warriors WC: Soles
Big fat zero. The Soles ran away with the division and Chicago and NY will probably miss out on the last WC spot.
NL South
No team in the South has ever won 100 games. With the addition of Hugh Boudreau this offseason, the San Juan Saints will have an improved offense and a good shot at winning 100. The Tampa Bay Grass Cats have a shot at the division with their good young starting pitching, but will need to improve their offense by ~100 runs to keep up with the Saints. Winner: Saints WC: None
Still no 100 game winner, but full credit. San Juan is up by 11 games and no other team has a realistic shot at the playoffs.
NL West
The Vancouver Beavers had kind of a down year last year, only winning 97 games. But msj22 is too good at stockpiling young talent to stay down for long. Look for this team to run away with the division, winning 105+ games. The Santa Cruz Tsunami will certainly hold their own in the wild card race this season. Their strong pitching staff is lead by Jimmie Nunez, still one of the best pitchers in the league, but he's 35 and his window of opportunity is narrowing. In order to challenge for a wild card spot, the Portland Gamblers will need to pick up an impact bat and replace the back end of their rotation will two major league capable starters. Outside of those improvements, the Gamblers will be lucky to finish more than a couple games over .500. Last year the San Francisco ROIDS scored 718 runs, last in the NL. Without addressing this offensive deficiency, they don't have a chance to compete. Look for them to continue building for the future. Winner: Beavers WC: Tsunami
Full credit for this one too. Bonus points for nailing the problems of the Gamblers and Roids.
50/100, 0/100, 100/100, 100/100 plus 10 bonus = 65%,
So how did my predictions turn out? Part 1 - AL
AL North Look for Kansas City Tornados to run away with the division. Winner: Tornados Wild Card: None
I give myself half credit here. Kansas City IS leading the race but Madison is only a game behind with 3 to go at KC. The Muskies need to take 2 out of 3 to tie, or sweep to win outright. If anyone understands the tie breaking procedure please let me know.
AL East
It was nucking futs how good the Burlington Spliffsters were last season. They finished 31 games ahead of the New York Big Bads who won 96 games. The Big Bads were a little unlucky last year, going 13-18 in one run games and underplayed their pythagorean by four games. Winner: Spliffsters Wild Card: Big Bads
Full credit if the Bads come away with the Wild Card. They are tied with Texas for the last spot.
AL South
AL South, you are one brutal sonofabitch. Last season the Jacksonville Fodder continued to unleash the fury on the rest of the league, overtaking the defending World Series Champion Texas Chainsaws for the first time in seven seasons. The real question is can the Chainsaws avoid sliding further and hold off the Louisville Red Strikers for the last wild card spot, or is it the beginning of the end for one of the most dominate franchises in this world's history? Winner: Fodder Wild Card: Red Strikers
Absolutely full credit here. But the Chainsaws may end up with the second WC.
AL West
The AL West is an interesting division. Can the Omaha Steaks pull it together and challenge the Las Vegas Card Sharks like they did in season 6? Or will Vegas run away with it like it has three out of the last four seasons? For Omaha to make a run, they need to score more runs. Their 791 RS last season was third to last in the AL. To correct this they have promoted a couple big bats from their minor league system. Ivan Nieves and Wilt Roberts should provide some much needed pop. Alex Astacio has been called up to work out of the bullpen and should help out a staff that had an ERA of 5.22 last year. The Salt Lake City Mashin' Mormons will continue to crush the ball but are only a contender if they can improve their pitching. The San Diego Friars have completely revamped their pitching staff, bringing in several veterans through trade and free agency, along with a couple new bats. They could be the surprise of the division. Watch out for this dark horse team. Winner: Card Sharks Wild Card: None
3/4 credit here. I had LV winning it, I had SD being the surprise of the division (congrats on the 2nd place finish SD), and I thought that Salt Lake would be all bats and no pitching (sort of right, the bats weren't as good as I expected, but the pitching was the downfall), but I just didn't see Omaha hitting the tank. I should have though, they are rebuilding and made a major payroll cut.
50/100, 100/100, 100/100, 75/100 = ~81%. That's a B- right? That's better than I got in college.
I give myself half credit here. Kansas City IS leading the race but Madison is only a game behind with 3 to go at KC. The Muskies need to take 2 out of 3 to tie, or sweep to win outright. If anyone understands the tie breaking procedure please let me know.
AL East
It was nucking futs how good the Burlington Spliffsters were last season. They finished 31 games ahead of the New York Big Bads who won 96 games. The Big Bads were a little unlucky last year, going 13-18 in one run games and underplayed their pythagorean by four games. Winner: Spliffsters Wild Card: Big Bads
Full credit if the Bads come away with the Wild Card. They are tied with Texas for the last spot.
AL South
AL South, you are one brutal sonofabitch. Last season the Jacksonville Fodder continued to unleash the fury on the rest of the league, overtaking the defending World Series Champion Texas Chainsaws for the first time in seven seasons. The real question is can the Chainsaws avoid sliding further and hold off the Louisville Red Strikers for the last wild card spot, or is it the beginning of the end for one of the most dominate franchises in this world's history? Winner: Fodder Wild Card: Red Strikers
Absolutely full credit here. But the Chainsaws may end up with the second WC.
AL West
The AL West is an interesting division. Can the Omaha Steaks pull it together and challenge the Las Vegas Card Sharks like they did in season 6? Or will Vegas run away with it like it has three out of the last four seasons? For Omaha to make a run, they need to score more runs. Their 791 RS last season was third to last in the AL. To correct this they have promoted a couple big bats from their minor league system. Ivan Nieves and Wilt Roberts should provide some much needed pop. Alex Astacio has been called up to work out of the bullpen and should help out a staff that had an ERA of 5.22 last year. The Salt Lake City Mashin' Mormons will continue to crush the ball but are only a contender if they can improve their pitching. The San Diego Friars have completely revamped their pitching staff, bringing in several veterans through trade and free agency, along with a couple new bats. They could be the surprise of the division. Watch out for this dark horse team. Winner: Card Sharks Wild Card: None
3/4 credit here. I had LV winning it, I had SD being the surprise of the division (congrats on the 2nd place finish SD), and I thought that Salt Lake would be all bats and no pitching (sort of right, the bats weren't as good as I expected, but the pitching was the downfall), but I just didn't see Omaha hitting the tank. I should have though, they are rebuilding and made a major payroll cut.
50/100, 100/100, 100/100, 75/100 = ~81%. That's a B- right? That's better than I got in college.
Who Your Prospect - Wanderer Edition
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There is no shortage of good hitting LF's in this game, so the standard for a quality CO prospect is pretty high. That being said, Swift should be an excellent hitter (if he's allowed to develop). Only 19 and already in AA (plus 179 ML at bats - WHY?), Swift projects 84/92/75/75/69 offensively and a 75 range.
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Tatis' ratings aren't bad, but he is probably no better than a 3rd or 4th starter with fairly mediocre splits. He does project excellent control and has two great pitches and two usable ones. His stats have been unimpressive but that could be due to a bad defensive behind him.
Up next the Nashville Cats
Who's Your Prospect - Gopher Edition
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I really think Moore could be a capable catcher at the big league level. The projected 65/69 AS/AA aren't going to throw many runners out, but the projected 68 PC is well above average and the kid is going to rake. Projected 71/73/100/93/78 offensive ratings should force the Gophers to find a spot in the lineup for him.
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Acquired from Louisville in the William Phelps trade, the former first round pick projects 78/72 L/R, 81 control, and pitches 71/53/44/37. Durham is a solid pitcher who should pitch in the majors in the future, but is limited by his lack of quality pitches.
Up next the Montreal Wanderers.
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