Pioneer League

The MVP Award

2008-09-23T18:48:00.001-07:00

In real life, the MVP award should be a no brainer. Advanced statistics have progressed to the point that we really can identify who the best players are and get a reasonably close approximation of how many runs or wins they contribute. The writers still often get it wrong because their job is to tell a story, not provide real analysis. They tend to focus too much on team success, dramatic home runs, and September batting average. Side note: if I had a vote in real life I'd vote for Pujols and A-Rod (with Sizemore a close second).

In HBD, it's much more difficult to choose an MVP. The stats we have are not easy to access and the ones we don't have leave us missing a piece of the puzzle. Players aren't necessarily known to everyone and since the GM's are doing the voting, they tend to vote for their own players if given the choice*.

*I have absolutely no evidence to back up this claim. I just assume you do. If you don't, good for you.

Season 9 has given us 5 great choices in each league, but no easy way to distinguish them. The most advanced stat available on the voting page is OPS. Which is nice, but kind of...well imperfect. See it's great for separating good players from mediocre ones, but lacks the precision needed for this analysis. 4 out of the 5 AL candidates have OPS's within 90 points of each other, with the fifth playing half his games in an extreme pitchers park. In the NL, it's even closer, a swing of only 50 points.

We can throw RBI out the window, it's a context driven stat that tells us very little. Batting average is also flawed both in general and when used to try to pick the best out of five great players. Home runs are great, but need a little bit of context - park effects can have a large influence.

So what do we do? We don't have stats like VORP, WARP, and Eqa to really shed light on the players' individual production. We don't have advanced fielding metrics to show who really shines on defense. And it's difficult to use ratings. Since none of us really knows what rating does what, how could we argue that player A and his 91 power & 85 eye is better than player B and his 92 VR & 84 power?

*if you do some digging you can get runs created, but I've never been a huge fan of this stat

So how did I vote? I'll explain in the next post.

Contribution from another owner

2008-09-22T21:26:00.000-07:00

job314 was generous enough to send me the following post. He has been invited to become a regular contributor.

Here’s a general observation/question about rest and playing a guy every day, and here's a specific example of one high profile star in our world…

So the recent injury to rockstar T.J. Benoit has me thinking lately about the effects of fatigue. I’ve long been of the opinion that if you play a player fatigued his chance for injury is increased. How about a player’s production? Does his production go down too or stay pretty much the same?

I get pretty scared when I see less then 100% next to one of my players names. I had the liberty of clinching a playoff spot early, so I was able to rest my players often. Many other owners are still chasing playoff spots though and can’t send out a AAA call up at this point in the season. Lately I have been seeing many of my opponents with lineups containing multiple players below 100% fatigue. I think a lot of owners don't comprehend the risks or the effects it has on their players.

Case study: Take a look at Tampa Bay's 1B Daniel Giovanola. I have been watching this guy mostly because he is Danny York's biggest threat in the race for the NL MVP. Giovanola's durability is a lousy 71. His bat is spectacular but he clearly can not play a full season with that durability. How many games has he played? 162 games, and with very little rest as he had 639 ABs. This guy is hitting HRs like a juiced up Barry Bonds, with an incredible 76 of them. If you go back to the point in the season where Giovanola’s fatigue level dropped below 100%, it was after game 95. He hit 47 HRs during these 1st 95 games while playing at 100%. His home run rate during this time was 0.49 per game. He has hit 29 HRs in the 67 games since then, while playing at less then 100%. An HR rate of 0.43 per game, a slight drop you might say. However, Giovanola’s fatigue level has progressively dropped from game number 96 to game 162. Currently he is playing at an 85% fatigue level. Want to know how many HRs he has hit in last month? 10 HRs in 31 games, or about 0.32 HRs per game. So in the other 131 games this season he has hit 66 HRs or about 0.50 HRs per game. Clearly the more fatigued Giovanola is the fewer Home Runs he hits.

My intent is not to pick on Tampa Bay or Daniel Giovanola. I don't know all the circumstances behind Tampa Bay's linup decisions. This was simply an observation I noticed looking at stats for only 1 player.

Playoff Preview (while slightly inebriated - GO CHARGERS!!!)

2008-09-22T21:11:00.000-07:00

In the AL I have to start with the surprise Madison Muskies. Winning 2 out of 3 at Kansas City to tie for the division lead (not sure exactly how they won the tiebreaker) and they're in. And they have a decent chance in their series against Texas. The Chainsaws' lineup is still monstrous, but their pitching has been disappointing. If the Muskies can get some pitching, they could pull off the upset. (Before you write in, I know Madison is technically seeded higher, but the Chainsaws were better this year and are the favorites to win this series).

The AL South landed three teams in the playoffs, lead by 104 win Jacksonville, charging hard the final two weeks of the season and overtaking Louisville. The Red Strikers draw a favorable match up with Las Vegas but in a five game series anything can happen.

The Spliffsters earned the number 1 seed but it came with a price. As mentioned by job314 in a previous post, superstar TJ Benoit is out for the year, injured just a few days ago, long after Burlington had clinched the division.

The NL looks like a two horse race between Ottawa and Dover. If Vancouver gets past NY, they may be the only other team to challenge for the pennant.

The series between Santa Cruz and San Juan looks to be a tossup. I'll guess Santa Cruz in five but don't hold me to it.

I predict that Jacksonville and Lousiville will meet in the ALCS, with Jacksonville winning in six. In the NLCS I'll take Ottawa over Dover in seven.

And Jacksonville over Ottawa in six to take home the title.

Let the games begin.

So how did my predictions turn out? Part 2 - NL

2008-09-21T21:07:00.000-07:00

NL North

Last year the Ottawa Omebas ran away with their division, finishing 17 games ahead of the second place Milwaukee Timberjacks. The Omebas set out on their quest to repeat as division champs by acquiring perennial all star and former MVP, Tyrone Knight. Knight will replace Shawn Lilly in right field this season and will add even more power to a lineup that scored 990 runs last season, good for 2nd most in the NL. Winner: Omebas Wild Card: None

Did anyone think Ottawa would be THIS good? Half credit since I didn't think Milwaukee would compete for a WC spot. Weird fact - The Omebas scored MORE runs last year. It's their pitching that really improved this year.

NL East

The NL East should an exciting division this year. There is a possibility of a three team race for the division featuring two of the most dynamic offenses in the league. The core of the Dover Soles that won 103 games last year remains intact, with the addition of closer Osvaldo Martinez the only major change. After breaking out with 101 wins last season, the Chicago Turgid Warriors will try to overtake the Soles for the division title this year. Chicago's key pickup was Dean Jordan, a 22 year old rule 5 selection. Jordan should have no problem hitting ML pitching, it's getting into the lineup that will be the problem. Not suited for full time catching duty, Jordan might be able to hide at first base. Winner: Turgid Warriors WC: Soles

Big fat zero. The Soles ran away with the division and Chicago and NY will probably miss out on the last WC spot.

NL South

No team in the South has ever won 100 games. With the addition of Hugh Boudreau this offseason, the San Juan Saints will have an improved offense and a good shot at winning 100. The Tampa Bay Grass Cats have a shot at the division with their good young starting pitching, but will need to improve their offense by ~100 runs to keep up with the Saints. Winner: Saints WC: None

Still no 100 game winner, but full credit. San Juan is up by 11 games and no other team has a realistic shot at the playoffs.

NL West

The Vancouver Beavers had kind of a down year last year, only winning 97 games. But msj22 is too good at stockpiling young talent to stay down for long. Look for this team to run away with the division, winning 105+ games. The Santa Cruz Tsunami will certainly hold their own in the wild card race this season. Their strong pitching staff is lead by Jimmie Nunez, still one of the best pitchers in the league, but he's 35 and his window of opportunity is narrowing. In order to challenge for a wild card spot, the Portland Gamblers will need to pick up an impact bat and replace the back end of their rotation will two major league capable starters. Outside of those improvements, the Gamblers will be lucky to finish more than a couple games over .500. Last year the San Francisco ROIDS scored 718 runs, last in the NL. Without addressing this offensive deficiency, they don't have a chance to compete. Look for them to continue building for the future. Winner: Beavers WC: Tsunami

Full credit for this one too. Bonus points for nailing the problems of the Gamblers and Roids.

50/100, 0/100, 100/100, 100/100 plus 10 bonus = 65%,

So how did my predictions turn out? Part 1 - AL

2008-09-21T20:49:00.000-07:00

AL North Look for Kansas City Tornados to run away with the division. Winner: Tornados Wild Card: None

I give myself half credit here. Kansas City IS leading the race but Madison is only a game behind with 3 to go at KC. The Muskies need to take 2 out of 3 to tie, or sweep to win outright. If anyone understands the tie breaking procedure please let me know.

AL East

It was nucking futs how good the Burlington Spliffsters were last season. They finished 31 games ahead of the New York Big Bads who won 96 games. The Big Bads were a little unlucky last year, going 13-18 in one run games and underplayed their pythagorean by four games. Winner: Spliffsters Wild Card: Big Bads

Full credit if the Bads come away with the Wild Card. They are tied with Texas for the last spot.

AL South

AL South, you are one brutal sonofabitch. Last season the Jacksonville Fodder continued to unleash the fury on the rest of the league, overtaking the defending World Series Champion Texas Chainsaws for the first time in seven seasons. The real question is can the Chainsaws avoid sliding further and hold off the Louisville Red Strikers for the last wild card spot, or is it the beginning of the end for one of the most dominate franchises in this world's history? Winner: Fodder Wild Card: Red Strikers

Absolutely full credit here. But the Chainsaws may end up with the second WC.

AL West

The AL West is an interesting division. Can the Omaha Steaks pull it together and challenge the Las Vegas Card Sharks like they did in season 6? Or will Vegas run away with it like it has three out of the last four seasons? For Omaha to make a run, they need to score more runs. Their 791 RS last season was third to last in the AL. To correct this they have promoted a couple big bats from their minor league system. Ivan Nieves and Wilt Roberts should provide some much needed pop. Alex Astacio has been called up to work out of the bullpen and should help out a staff that had an ERA of 5.22 last year. The Salt Lake City Mashin' Mormons will continue to crush the ball but are only a contender if they can improve their pitching. The San Diego Friars have completely revamped their pitching staff, bringing in several veterans through trade and free agency, along with a couple new bats. They could be the surprise of the division. Watch out for this dark horse team. Winner: Card Sharks Wild Card: None
3/4 credit here. I had LV winning it, I had SD being the surprise of the division (congrats on the 2nd place finish SD), and I thought that Salt Lake would be all bats and no pitching (sort of right, the bats weren't as good as I expected, but the pitching was the downfall), but I just didn't see Omaha hitting the tank. I should have though, they are rebuilding and made a major payroll cut.

50/100, 100/100, 100/100, 75/100 = ~81%. That's a B- right? That's better than I got in college.

Who Your Prospect - Wanderer Edition

2008-09-21T20:37:00.000-07:00

Cory Swift
Montreal
Wanderers
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Stratton Mtn, VT
Position(s): LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

There is no shortage of good hitting LF's in this game, so the standard for a quality CO prospect is pretty high. That being said, Swift should be an excellent hitter (if he's allowed to develop). Only 19 and already in AA (plus 179 ML at bats - WHY?), Swift projects 84/92/75/75/69 offensively and a 75 range.

Olmedo Tatis
Montreal
Wanderers
Age: 24	B/T: R/R
Born: Cowden, IL
Position(s): P (SP5)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Tatis' ratings aren't bad, but he is probably no better than a 3rd or 4th starter with fairly mediocre splits. He does project excellent control and has two great pitches and two usable ones. His stats have been unimpressive but that could be due to a bad defensive behind him.

Up next the Nashville Cats

Who's Your Prospect - Gopher Edition

2008-09-21T20:25:00.000-07:00

Freddie Moore
Minnesota
Gophers
Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Born: Foley, AL
Position(s): C/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I really think Moore could be a capable catcher at the big league level. The projected 65/69 AS/AA aren't going to throw many runners out, but the projected 68 PC is well above average and the kid is going to rake. Projected 71/73/100/93/78 offensive ratings should force the Gophers to find a spot in the lineup for him.

Lou Durham
Minnesota
Gophers
Age: 19	B/T: S/L
Born: Honolulu, HI
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Acquired from Louisville in the William Phelps trade, the former first round pick projects 78/72 L/R, 81 control, and pitches 71/53/44/37. Durham is a solid pitcher who should pitch in the majors in the future, but is limited by his lack of quality pitches.

Up next the Montreal Wanderers.

The Five Best Third Basemen in the World

2008-09-21T19:38:00.000-07:00

This list was probably the easiest so far.

5. Trey Vickers - Las Vegas
I really don't like his .334 OBP, but he has hit 53 HRs this year and slugged .589, all while playing decent defense (but 60 games at SS is probably pushing it). His 95 power and 75/64 splits are his meal ticket. Will be a free agent this offseason and should get big bucks.

4. Ben Herndon - Minnesota
If allowed to develop properly, Herndon probably could have been a SS. But he wasn't, so now he's just a good third basemen. His 90 power, 89 contact, and 89/61 L/R ratings are really blackened by his 37 eye. But so far his power has made up for his inability to get on base.

3. Adam Ott - Burlington
Ott has great contact and splits, but only a 49 eye and 66 power. His numbers have dipped a little this season but he is a career 307/371/508 hitter and should rebound next year.

2. Joseph Chen - Jacksonville
At 22, Chen is still young enough that he will probably play SS in the future. But right now the Fodder are happy to let him tear it up at third. Currently rated 81/79/88/70/61 offensively and a stud with the glove, Chen doesn't put up the best offensive numbers (only OPSing .885 this year) but is easily among the top 3 third basemen in the world.

1. Jumbo Limon - Ottawa
When you look at Limon's ratings it's easy to assume that he is a monster with the bat, and while he is very, very good, you can't help but be a little disappointed with the sub .400 OBP and 21 HRs. Incredibly high standards? Yes, but his offensive ratings are 81/74/81/73/85. He's number one by a hair over Chen.

Honorable Mention:
Roosevelt Hernandez - San Francisco

An apology to those who actually read the blog...

2008-09-21T19:26:00.001-07:00

Who would have known that setting up a captive insurance program would take up so much of my time. So I apologize for going AWOL on the blog for the last month(or two?...yikes). I'm touching up a few posts right now and should have them up tonight. Who's Your Prospect will continue on into the off-season and hopefully every team is profiled before rollover. And I should have all the positional analysis done by the end of this week.

I'll keep tabs on the playoffs and I'll be back blogging again next season, hopefully readership increases from the current 12 to, I don't know, 14?

And if anyone feels the urge to add their 2 cents, let me know and I'll add you as a poster.

Thanks,
Jason

Munro Throws a No Hitter

2008-09-10T19:17:00.000-07:00

Reggie Munro
Louisville
Red Strikers
Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Born: Carlsbad, NM
Position(s): P (SP3)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Rookie Reggie Munro threw a no hitter today. The first in Red Strikers history.

In other news, the Pioneer League has managed to pick up another douche bag. Bakpakr22 (or kcote for the conspiracy theorists) is cutting players left and right. We need WIS to intervene.

EDIT: Turns out the guy just screwed up. My apologies. But that was still pretty dumb.

Who's Your Prospect - Timberjack Edition

2008-09-05T18:35:00.000-07:00

Al Alou
Milwaukee
Timberjacks
Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Born: Albuquerque, NM
Position(s): C/1B/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

While Alou doesn't profile well as a major league catcher, it doesn't look like he'll kill you behind the plate either. Projected to 82 arm strength, 69 arm accuracy, and 46 pitch call, you wouldn't want to play him at catcher every game. Luckily for Milwaukee, Alou looks like he'll have the bat to be a more than capable DH. Projected to 90/78/100/84/52 (con/pow/L/R/eye), Alou should mash at the big league level. Drafted in season 8 but already at AA, Alou could be ready for the big leagues by next year.

Pat Lee
Milwaukee
Timberjacks
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Okinawa, JP
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Lee probably has a Cy Young or two in his future. Projected to 100 control and 91 vR, Lee was a $22 million dollar international free agent, signed by Ottawa in season 8 and acquired as part of the Tyrone Knight trade. He's only 19 and he's already better than half the pitchers at the big league level.

Up next the Minnesota Gophers.

Portland/Tampa Bay Trade

2008-09-04T20:42:00.000-07:00

This is a great trade for the Gamblers. Getting Jim Jenkins addresses the team's biggest weakness and makes them a legitimate contender for a wild card spot. And they didn't have to give up very much. In fact, I think Tampa Bay really dropped the ball here.

The Grass Cats get back a couple good players in Mark Martin and Brandon Landrum (along with Robinson Lofton, a no bat SS who will never play in the majors). But not what I would consider equal value to Jenkins. Martin is either a good hitting, below average fielding second baseman, or a below average hitting, good fielding left fielder. Landrum should be a very good relief pitcher.

But starting pitchers like Jenkins don't grow on trees. Granted he's in the last year of his contract and the Grass Cats probably wouldn't have resigned him, he hasn't posted an era under 4 in six seasons, and he's probably a little overrated (he only has three pitches, all under 70). I just think they could have done better, especially when you consider that Jenkins will almost certainly be a type A free agent after this season and net his old team 2 draft picks.

Who's Your Prospect - Red Strikers Edition

2008-09-01T15:18:00.000-07:00

I've promoted most of my best prospects to the big leagues, leaving my farm system a little dry. A solid draft this year has added some bats, but the best young pitchers acquired in my time with the franchise are occupying four of the five starting rotation spots on my major league team. So, enjoy the mediocrity:

Albert Nieto
Louisville
Red Strikers
Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Born: Villa Mella, DO
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I picked up Nieto in a season 7 trade for Rico Estrella and $400,000 in cash. I think it was a pretty solid pickup. The guy will never be a Cy Young award winner but he has good control and solid splits. A projected 66 stamina and only one good pitch make it unlikely that he ends up in the starting rotation, but he should be an effective reliever.

Andy Smith
Louisville
Red Strikers
Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Born: Kemmerer, WY
Position(s): CF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I usually try to write about the best position player in the system, and in this case it would be Robb Glover, but I just wrote about him in the draft recap and it would be a little redundant. So you get Smith. A very solid power hitting CF with excellent range and an above average glove. He's left handed so he'll never be anything other than a CF, a position currently occupied by gold glover Ronald Tucker. I'll probably have to trade one of them in the next two seasons.

Up next the Milwaukee Timberjacks

Who's Your Prospect - What's Up With the Apostrophe Edition

2008-09-01T14:58:00.000-07:00

Vasco Rodriguez
Memphis
Flying Elvis'
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Ashville, OH
Position(s): C
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

V-Rod (sorry, I couldn't resist. Isn't it a great nickname - V-Rod, it sounds so...cherry popping) is a mixed bag. He is a great hitting catcher - if he stays at catcher. Some people might be scared off by his projected 42 pitch call rating. I wouldn't be. 42 is bad for most ratings, but for catcher's pitch call it is just a little below average. He also has above average arm strength and excellent arm accuracy. One big red flag is his durability, projected only to 59.

Al Cruz
Memphis
Flying Elvis'
Age: 19	B/T: L/L
Born: Belleville, KS
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Al should be a solid major league pitcher, if unspectacular. He's a little short on the stamina side, projected only to 70, but he'll get by. Excellent control, solid splits, and three good pitches (92/84/69) should allow the season 8 first round pick to pitch 5 or 6 solid innings every 5th day. In Low A this year Cruz has 96 K's in only 109 innings.

Up next the Louisville Red Strikers

Who's Your Prospect - Muskies Edtion

2008-08-31T12:43:00.000-07:00

Nick Bonilla
Madison
Muskies
Age: 18	B/T: S/R
Born: New London, CT
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I didn't even have to look through the Muskies system to get this one. As already written about in the draft recap, the Muskies were fortunate to get Bonilla at number two overall in the season 9 draft, as I was sure he would go number one. An absolute stud, Bonilla projects 94/94/81/88 stam/con/L/R and two pitches above 80. He still has a lot a of development before he gets close to his potential. Hopefully the Muskies don't rush him.

Vin Rivera
Madison
Muskies
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Sedona, AZ
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Muskies second pick of the season nine draft, Rivera should be a very solid second baseman some day. Projected with 86 range and 70 glove, Rivera should be able to handle second base, though the combination of high range and below average glove may lead to higher error totals. Rivera also has a very solid bat, with splits and contact in the mid 70's.

Up next the Memphis Flying Elvis'

The Playoff Race - NL

2008-08-31T12:35:00.001-07:00

The division races are essentially over in the NL. Ottawa, Dover, San Juan, and Vancouver all have comfortable leads.

Santa Cruz and Portland currently lead the wild card race, with Milwaukee, Tacoma, Chicago, and New York all within four games. If I had to guess, I'd say that Milwaukee and Santa Cruz end up in the playoffs, with New York and Chicago falling a game or two short and the rest of the teams behind those two.

Among the division leaders, the jockeying for the second bye should be interesting. Dover and Vancouver look to be the favorites, and I think it will end with the Soles just edging the Beavers.

Santa Cruz/San Diego Trade

2008-08-31T12:06:00.000-07:00

I like the thought behind the trade from San Diego's perspective. The Friars aren't making the playoffs this year and Chang is in the last year of his contract. It was smart to move him. I like Chuck Messmer, and if he can make it to his glove and arm accuracy projections he'll be a good offensive SS. But if he doesn't, he becomes a mediocre third baseman.

The other two players the Friars get back aren't stars, but Louie Gonzales has some value depending on where he plays. He's signed through next year at $3.2m and brings a career .279/.369/.402, which is great for a catcher but terrible for a DH. Louis Frederick looks to be a throw in who could fill in at the ML level in an emergency.

I really like this trade for Santa Cruz. Their pitching has been their strength this year and adding Chang will only make them stronger. They are leading the wildcard race and giving up Messmer didn't hurt them at all.

Who's Your Prospect - What Happens in Vegas and Other Annoying Slogans Edition

2008-08-31T11:51:00.001-07:00

Del Stock
Las Vegas
Card Sharks
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Rocklin, CA
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Taken with the 19th overall pick in the season 8 draft, Stock has potential to be a gold glove second baseman if he hits his projections. Along with the projected 100 glove, Stock has the bat to stick in the big leagues. A little short on power, Stock makes up for it with 86/65 splits and 70's contact and eye projections. He's only 19 and still has a long way to go in his defensive development. Don't expect to see him in Vegas for at least 3-4 seasons.

Rafael Cruz
Las Vegas
Card Sharks
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Pueblo Nuevo, CU
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Card Sharks system was a little thin in the pitching department, as they are in a win now cycle and have sacrificed draft picks for type A free agents. Cruz was signed as an international free agent last season and projects as a borderline major league pitcher. He looks like he will have the stamina, splits, and pitches to be an effective starter, but is really hindered by a projected 56 control. And the control may be a deal breaker. So far, in 116 minor league innings, Cruz has walked over 50 batters.

Up next the Madison Muskies

The Playoff Race - AL

2008-08-31T11:13:00.000-07:00

We're still a ways out, but I thought today I'd take a look at the AL playoff race. NL to follow shortly.

Right now there are seven teams within five games of the six playoff spots. The only real race for a spot is in the north, as the second place teams in the east and south will probably get the wild card spots.

The Tornados currently have a two game lead over the Muskies in the north and their run differentials suggest that the lead will hold baring a major acquisition/injury/slump. Looking at the schedules for each team, they play each other four more times with three of those games being the season ending series in KC. The Tornados play fifteen more games against likely playoff teams while the Muskies play 20 (not including the games against KC). To make a move Madison would have to seriously bolster their pitching staff which has allowed 577 runs this year.

In the West, the Card Sharks should be able to hold off the Friars. Even if both teams play closer to their run differentials down the stretch (which would benefit SD), seven games is a lot to make up.

In the South and East, both the Fodder and the Big Bads refuse to throw in the towel and settle for a wild card spot. They are both within two games of the lead in their respective divisions and should push hard for the division titles as there is a big difference between first place and a first round bye and second place and a first round series against a division winner. The Spliffsters and Red Strikers will have their hands full trying to hold on to their slim leads.

The Five Best Second Basemen in the World

2008-08-30T13:08:00.001-07:00

Second base is one of those positions that managers like to hide a guy. You'll often see a guy at second with range/glove ratings in the mid 60's who have good bats for a second basemen but not good enough for a left fielder. So one of the requirements for making this list is that the player has to have the defensive ratings to at least play a mediocre second base.

5. Rod O'Donnell - Burlington
Probably the best all around defensive player on the list, O'Donnell could probably play SS if the Spliffsters needed him to. His career numbers with the bat aren't great, but a lot of that is due to his home ballpark. He has power and eye in the 70's and solid splits.

4. Hugh Boudreau - San Juan
Yeah his defensive ratings push the definition of "mediocre" to its limit, but he's not a complete butcher in the field and the man can hit, posting a season 9 line of .317/.415/.658. He could have easily been ranked higher, but second is a very deep position in our world.

3. Daniel Sprague - Vancouver
Sprague is a stud and, like Boudreau, could have easily been ranked higher on the list. Save for eye, all of his offensive ratings are in the 80's & 90's, he has an average glove (but below average range), and should be an MVP candidate hitting .370/.432/.740 this season.

2. Moises Lima - Texas
Lima is 25 and in his short career he has already been Rookie of the Year, a 5 time All Star, a 5 time Silver Slugger winner, and a 2 time MVP. His numbers this year are a little off last year's but he is still OPSing over .1100.

1. William Phelps - Louisville
Both Sprague and Lima have legitimate arguments for the #1 position on this list but I chose to go with Phelps. Already traded TWICE this season and determined not to be shown up by all the gold medals won by his grape smuggling cousin, Phelps has been a key piece in Lousiville's surprise season. Offensive ratings of 91/90/80/62/88 and an above average glove land Phelps at #1.

(Yeah, I know, I'm a homer)

Honorable Mention: Cam Affeldt - Memphis

EDIT: Somehow I completely missed Ron Valentin. He deserves a spot on the list also. Consider him 2A.

Draft Recap - Picks 21-32

2008-08-30T08:11:00.000-07:00

21.

Wilt McMillon
Syracuse
Barge Canals
Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Born: Hanna, WY
Position(s): RF/1B/LF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

McMillon has very good splits, eye, contact, and speed, but lacks the power traditionally required of a corner outfielder. He also has above average range and arm and will probably be able to stick in the big leagues as a either a 4th outfielder or a starter on a team loaded with power at other positions.

22.
Karim Tejada looks to be an extremely tough sign. And he may not be worth it. The San Juan Saints pick projects as slightly below average as a major league SS and is nothing more than mediocre with the bat.

23.

Robb Glover
Louisville
Red Strikers
Age: 18	B/T: L/L
Born: Ogden, IA
Position(s): 1B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I was extremely happy that Glover fell to me at pick 23. Before the draft I viewed him as one of the best bats available, and to have him slide to the back third of the draft was a surprise. He projects con/pow/vL/vR/eye of 85/90/80/84/90.

24.

Frank Young
Kansas City
Tornados
Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Born: Walters, OK
Position(s): 1B/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Young is another good offensive first baseman. He doesn't have the power that Glover has but has better splits and a projected 100 eye.

25.
The fact that Cleatus Skinner is only looking for slot money and still isn't signed leads me to believe that the Big Bads are going to pass on this mediocre pitcher and take the comp pick next year. I can't say I disagree with the move. Skinner projects 50/42 L/R and will probably never be an effective major league pitcher.

26.

Anthony Rowan
Vancouver
Beavers
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Marfa, TX
Position(s): CF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Rowan looks like a great value pick at 26. He projects above average range and glove and should get on base a lot with his projected mid 80's contact and eye.

27.

Rob McCarthy
Chicago
Turgid Warriors
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Waterloo, WI
Position(s): C
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I was really surprised that McCarthy fell this far. His defensive projections are just a tick above major league average but considering his projected offensive ratings of con/pow/L/R/eye 90/56/84/50/49, I thought he'd go in the first half of the round.

28.

Dwight Crane
San Juan
Saints
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Starke, FL
Position(s): RF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Crane should be able to make the big leagues as a corner outfielder in the next few years. He probably lacks the power to start on a good team but should be a very capable 4th.

29.

Lou Pierce
Dover
Soles
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Dearborn Heights, MI
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I really like this pick. Pierce projects great control and vR, has very good velocity, and two pitches projected in the 80's and 90's.

30.

Taylor Koch
Ottawa
Omebas
Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Born: Belmont, MA
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I don't like Koch as much as Pierce because he lacks the dominating split rating. But things start to really thin out at this point in the draft and you take what falls to you. One thing Koch has over Pierce is the durability to pitch just about every day.

31.

Charles Lee
Jacksonville
Fodder
Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Born: North Bend, OH
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Lee doesn't have the range or glove to play 2nd at the major league level or the bat to start in a corner outfield spot. Maybe a fourth outfielder in the big leagues.

32.

Jerome Duran
Burlington
Spliffsters
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Andover, MA
Position(s): P (SuA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Another solid relief pitcher, Duran projects good control, 60's/80's splits, and one above average pitch (two average-below average pitches). Not as good as Pierce or as durable as Koch, but should have a roll at the big league level one day.

Draft Recap - Picks 11-20

2008-08-27T18:12:00.000-07:00

11.

Ed Rigby
Omaha
Steaks
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Cecilia, KY
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I'm a bit mixed on Rigby. He has good defensive projections and will easily stick at 2nd, and his contact and power ratings are above average. But his mediocre eye and unimpressive splits lead me to believe that his projected 88 overall rating is a little inflated by his projected 98 durability. Rigby should still be a good major leaguer and is a solid pick at number 11.

12.
Hector Franco projects to be a solid ML pitcher, but definitely in the second tier of starting pitchers available in this draft. The Gophers' first round pick projects good control, passable splits, and possibly four pitches usable at the big league level (with the best toping out at 80).

13.

Julio Izquierdo
Portland
Gamblers
Age: 18	B/T: S/R
Born: Mission, SD
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I'm really not impressed by the Gamblers selection of Izquierdo. Especially with Shawn Zimmerman (see below) still available. Izquierdo projects as a mediorce major league starter with control in the low 60's, 58/73 L/R, and three above average pitches.

14.
Bob Schneider looks like a good pick at 14 (if Syracuse can get him signed). The second baseman projects 76/91 splits, 70's eye and contact, and 50's power. His glove and range should be good enough to allow him to stay at 2nd. The only question mark is his durability, projected to 76. He will need a lot of time off during the season to stay fresh.

15.

Ryan Fonda
Memphis
Flying Elvis'
Age: 18	B/T: L/L
Born: Connersville, IN
Position(s): RF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Fonda lacks the traditional power potential you like in a corner outfielder but more than makes up for it with incredible L/R and eye projections. Will be most effective batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup where the team will be able to take advantage of his sure to be high OBP.

16.

J.C. Price
Tampa Bay
Grass Cats
Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Born: Taylorsville, KY
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The first relief pitcher taken, Price looks like the future closer of the Grass Cats. He projects 80's ratings in control, L/R, velocity, and both pitches. He also has the durability to pitch often. Price should move quickly through the minors.

17.

Ryan Fisher
Tacoma
Aroma
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Banquete, TX
Position(s): SS
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Part of me wishes I had the opportunity to draft Fisher. The other part of me is glad that I didn't. He is so talented, both in the field and at the plate. His projections show him being able to play SS in the majors and really hit - power and eye ratings in the 80's, and contact and splits in the 70's. But then you see the projected 65 durability and you hesitate. You know he won't be able to play every day. You know you'll have to sit him often to keep him fresh and now you'll have to replace not only his bat, but his glove when he's out of the lineup. But you really can't argue with the value of the selection. A SS this talented doesn't often fall to 17.

18.
Nashville had a great opportunity to add some depth to their system with two first round draft picks. Unfortunately they used the second pick on Andres Gomez. If you can't see his projections, here they are: contact 65, power 40, l/r 48/55, eye 59. He projects an 83 range but only a 67 glove, and not enough arm to play third.

19.
Karl Henley shows very good potential with his bat. The unsigned RF is a little short on power but has very good splits, eye, and contact. A good value pick for Milwaukee at number 19 overall.

20.

Shawn Zimmerman
New York
New York Trekkies
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: La Jara, CO
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I was really surprised that Zimmerman fell this far. His projected splits (65/75) aren't overwhelming, but combined with his projected 94 control; 91, 80, 55, and 54 pitch projections, and no red flags in the durability, stamina, health, or makeup ratings, he has the makings of a very solid major league pitcher.

Draft Recap - Picks 1-10

2008-08-25T18:51:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the wait on the draft recap. I wanted as many players as possible to be signed before I started it so that I could see the projections and post the profiles.

1.

J.P. Russell
Jackson
Pollacks
Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Born: Raleigh, NC
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

It was a little surprising that Russell went number one overall, but he is a very solid pitching prospect. He projects splits in the low 70's, control and stamina in the high 80's, and three out of his five pitches project as major league quality. Already 21, Russell still has a lot of ground to cover if he wants to hit his projected ratings.

2.

Nick Bonilla
Madison
Muskies
Age: 18	B/T: S/R
Born: New London, CT
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Madison received quite a gift when Bonilla fell to them. Projected as a 96 overall, I have to assume he was at the top of many teams' draft boards. With a projected 94 control and 80's splits, Bonilla immediately becomes one of the ten best pitching prospects in the world. His pitch ratings aren't spectacular, with only two of the five projecting as above average, but two others project ~50, making them usable as major league pitches.

3.

Aubrey Reitz
Augusta
Aces
Age: 18	B/T: S/R
Born: Berlin, MD
Position(s): LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Reitz is a solid corner outfield prospect with good power, eye, and contact. His strongest skill is his projected vL rating of 100. He should play an above average LF and projects to have the durability to play every day.

4.
Jeff Carter is unsigned so I can't post his profile. Carter is a very good pitching prospect but with a projected stamina of 68, a little short of front line starter quality. He projects excellent control, above average splits, and three of his five pitches project to 80 or above. Hopefully the Cleveland Frozen Ropes can get him signed and add a great prospect to their system.

5.

Bob Thomas
Cincinnati
Hit Kings
Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Born: Hemlock, OH
Position(s): 3B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

At number five overall, Thomas is a bit of a stretch. He projects as fairly unremarkable defensively and may end up in the outfield. Offensively, Thomas projects to have a good eye and decent splits but not enough power for a corner infielder or outfielder.

6.

Woody Little
San Francisco
ROIDS
Age: 18	B/T: L/L
Born: Concord, CA
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Little was probably the last of the top tier starting pitchers available in the draft. He projects 80's control, 70's splits, and 5 pitches usable at the major league level. The only question mark is his health, projected at 55.

7.

Bill Biggio
San Diego
Friars
Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Born: Gulfport, FL
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I really don't like this pick at all. Picking seventh overall, the Friars had a chance to draft one of several sure fire major league players. Instead they drafted Biggio. With a projected 48 control and 50's splits, it's doubtful Biggio will ever be an effective major league pitcher.

8.

Jordan Miadich
Montreal
Wanderers
Age: 18	B/T: L/R
Born: Irondale, AL
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

If Miadich can stick at second base, he has the potential to be an all star. But even if he ends up in left field, he projects as having enough offensive skill to to be an above average major leaguer. Featuring projected 80's contact, power, and eye, with high 70's vR, Miadich should be an impact bat in the Wanderers lineup four or five years from now.

9.

Toby Nelson
Nashville
Cats
Age: 22	B/T: S/L
Born: Indianapolis, IN
Position(s): CF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I had Nelson very high on my board -- I have this weird obsession with rangy center fielders. He projects 90's range and glove, 90's vR, and solid eye, power, and contact ratings. At 22, he should move quickly through the Cats system.

10.

Ramiro Guzman
Salt Lake City
Mashin' Mormons
Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Born: Winston Salem, NC
Position(s): C
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Good catchers are really in demand, leading to the Mashin' Mormons taking Guzman at number 10 overall. Guzman has an average arm, but the real attraction can probably be traced to his projected 79 pitch call rating and above average offensive ratings. He projects to 98 contact but only 32 power. His good splits and eye should allow him to get on base a lot and his projected 100 durability should keep him in the lineup every day. Maybe not an all star, but Guzman should be a very good major leaguer.

Who's Your Prospect - Tornados Edition

2008-08-24T09:39:00.000-07:00

Yuniesky Trevino
Kansas City
Tornados
Age: 22	B/T: S/R
Born: Nigua, DO
Position(s): P (SuB)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Trevino is a 22 year old relief pitcher on the Tornados' AAA team. He has great control, a very good vR split, and three major league capable pitches. Singed in season 6 as an international free agent, Trevino has posted a career 4.04 era in 107 minor league innings pitched. He is just about fully developed and we could see him on the big league team if the Tornados need bullpen help.

Branch Benes
Kansas City
Tornados
Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Born: Centreville, MD
Position(s): 1B/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Benes is a 23 year old power hitting first basemen. He projects 90's power, 80 contact and eye, and 60's splits. He also has enough glove and range to fill in in left field if necessary. Since being drafted in the season 7 first round, Benes has hit 106 home runs and batted .357/.474/.767.

Up next the Las Vegas Card Sharks.

Hall of Fame Ballot Results

2008-08-19T18:05:00.000-07:00

The Hall of Fame balloting is over with neither player receiving enough votes to be elected into the Hall. Both Johnson and Tarraga received one yes vote. They will be eligible for nomination next season.

Thanks for voting.

Hall of Fame Ballot

2008-08-17T09:47:00.000-07:00

- nothing changed just moved to the top -

You can now vote yes or no on the two players nominated for the Hall of Fame:
Earl Johnson
Cookie Tarraga

In order to vote, please leave a comment with your name and how you vote each player. You have until I get home from work Tuesday (~5:30 pacific) to cast your ballot.

A note on the draft

2008-08-17T09:41:00.000-07:00

I'm going to post a first round draft summary soon. I want to wait until more players are signed since I can't see ratings on all of them.

The Grit, the Win, and the Run Batted In

2008-08-16T19:07:00.000-07:00

So I'm listening to local sports talk radio Thursday afternoon and the subject is Jake Peavy. Apparently the day before, Peavy had heard someone on the radio mention that he needs to be more consistent and pitch more shutouts and it pissed Peavy off. The whole Peavy needs to pitch more consistent thing is nonsense. And to their credit, the radio guys were saying so. Peavy leads the NL in ERA while pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. Without getting into the ridiculous obsession many baseball people have with consistency, of all the players on the Padres that need to be more consistent (or something more useful like good at playing baseball) Peavy isn't one of them.

But what got me going, and ultimately led to my wife turning off the radio, was the discussion of Peavy's win loss record. He's 9-8. Which to some people is the genesis of the whole "Peavy needs to be more consistent" argument. Their logic goes that if Peavy was more consistent - fuck me I can't do it. Consistent <> good. Fuck if I care if the guy is consistent, do you know who is consistent? Fucking Juan Pierre. He's posted OBP's of .326, .330, .331, and .327 from 2005 to this year. Fuck consistent.

Anyway, if he was more consistent he'd have more wins. Blah Blah Blah. You get the point.

So one of the radio guys says (paraphrasing) "hey, you can't blame Peavy for his win loss record, he pitches for a crappy team that gives him shitty run support." At this point I'm filled with joy. This radio guy is as old school as they come. He hates OBP, thinks Moneyball is a four letter word, and talks about his love for small ball and the sacrifice bunt. If HE can understand this simple fact about Peavy's win loss record, there may be hope for the world. Now all he has to do is apply the same logic to the win loss records of all pitchers and we can get on with abolishing this ridiculously stupid stat that some people insist on using to judge a pitcher.

God I'm stupid.

That small logical leap, so obvious to so many of you at home, but ignored by so many who are paid to write/talk about baseball, was also missed by this fine gentleman. Because in what must have been his very next breath, he defended the Rockies acquisition of Livan Hernandez by citing Hernandez's ten wins.

Your 60 Game Review

2008-08-16T18:44:00.000-07:00

In the AL North the Madison Muskies are shocking everyone. Their offense has carried them to a four game lead over the Kansas City Tornados and their run differential suggests they are for real. This should be a great race the rest of the way.

In the AL East the Burlington Spliffsters have come back down to earth and are being chased down by the New York Big Bads. I'm still thinking Burlington will win the division but it will be much closer than I thought.

In the AL South the Louisville Red Strikers have surprised everyone, including their owner. They own the best record and run differential in the AL but the Jacksonville Fodder are just a game behind and extremely dangerous. It looks like Texas Chainsaws are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.

In the AL West the Las Vegas Card Sharks have reclaimed the lead and look to pull away. The dark horse San Diego Friars have the second best run differential in the division but probably don't have enough to catch Vegas.

Over in the NL, the Ottawa Omebas are absolutely dominating the East.

It looks like I was wrong to be so optimistic about the Chicago Turgid Warriors in the NL North. The Dover Soles are cruising through the division.

In the NL South the San Juan Saints and the Tampa Bay Grass Cats are tied up with the Memphis Flying Elvis' just two games behind. The run differentials suggest Tampa Bay is the favorite, but San Juan should stay close.

In the NL West the Vancouver Beavers have the best run differential. But the Portland Gamblers and Santa Cruz Tsunami will stay close and one will probably grab a wild card spot.

HOF Nominees

2008-08-15T07:59:00.001-07:00

Earl Johnson and Cookie Tarraga were the only HOF nominees. I think both players are a no, but if anyone has a compelling argument for either, please let me know and I'll let you post it.

Both players will go up for voting after any arguments are heard. When the voting opens, I think we'll go with the 75% rule. A player must get a yes vote on 75% of ballots cast in order to get in the HOF.

Who's Your Prospect - Fodder Edition

2008-08-13T10:36:00.000-07:00

Juan Serra
Jacksonville
Fodder
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Fundacion, DO
Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Signed as an international free agent at the end of season 8, Juan Sierra looks like a future star. He projects in the high 70's or low 80's in every major offensive rating, the range and glove to play an above average second base, and the durability to play every day. This year in Low A Sierra has posted an OPS of 1.253.

Del Neruda
Jacksonville
Fodder
Age: 22	B/T: S/R
Born: Banes, CU
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Fodder have a handful of good young pitchers in their minor league system, so picking out one was hard. I chose Neruda because he projects near perfect control, great splits, and three very good pitches. Another international free agent (season 7), Neruda was extremely expensive, commanding a bonus of $21 million and a major league contract.

Up next the Kansas City Tornados

Hall of Fame Update

2008-08-12T18:55:00.000-07:00

So far there has only been one nomination for the inaugural Pioneer League Hall of Fame. You can nominate a retired player here until Friday.

If you don't have anyone to nominate, that's OK, we want to be as selective as possible.

The Draft is Coming! The Draft is Coming!

2008-08-12T18:40:00.000-07:00

The prospect list will be here tomorrow. In the interest of competition I'm not going to do a Baseball America type breakdown before the draft. I will do a review afterwards.

I may post some work I'm doing right now on hitter's ratings, but only if I find anything new or interesting. You guys don't need me to tell you that hitters with high eye ratings tend to have high on base percentages.

The Five Best First Basemen in the World

2008-08-12T17:28:00.000-07:00

How the hell do I pick out the best five first basemen? This is the total opposite of the catchers, where there were a couple really good ones and a bunch of also-rans. As expected first base is loaded with mashers. And defense is almost irrelevant. So what do I do? I'm going to pick who I think the five best are, then give an honorable mention list, then let you guys vote in a poll.

5. Larry DeJean - Tacoma
At 30, DeJean is the senior member of the list, but still as good as ever. His stats are somewhat suppressed playing half his games in Tacoma but DeJean still sports a 94 power, 83/91 L/R split, and a 67 eye.

4. Jorge Alomar - Vancouver
In 600+ major league at bats Alomar has put up a .332/.412/.640 line. Every major offensive rating is currently 78 or higher, with power at 93. He plays adequate defense. The only little downside is that he doesn't have the durability to play every day.

3. Daniel Giovanola - Tampa Bay
Giovanola has awesome power (99), great splits (82/87), and very good contact and eye. Ratings wise he isn't really a first baseman, so he loses points there, but he isn't horribly brutal in the field and the guy can really hit.

2. Danny York - Dover
Last year York hit 76 home runs, batted .317/.414/.761, won the NL Rookie of the year, Silver Slugger, and Most Valuable Player awards. And he's second on this list. Why? Because he has a vL split of 58. Nit picky? Yes. But I had to put these guys in order somehow.

1. T.J. Newman - New York AL
Newman has great offensive ratings, with a low of 82 eye and a high of 98 power. This year Newman has hit .352/.415/.719 with 20 home runs. He plays a very good first base and is capable of filling in at a corner outfield spot if needed.

Honorable mention in no particular order: Hector Nunez, Jason Gray, Dick Fox, Alfredo Franco

Who's Your Prospect - My Six Year Old Sister Could Have Painted That Edition

2008-08-12T14:09:00.000-07:00

When I first started looking through the Jackson Pollacks minor league system to pick out players for this post I was stunned. There wasn't a single position prospect worth writing about. Then I realized I was looking at "Current Ratings" and breathed a sigh of relief.

Alex Contreras
Jackson
Pollacks
Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Born: Medicine Lodge, KS
Position(s): C/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

For some reason I always like good young catchers. Maybe it's because my franchise has always struggled to draft and develop a good one. Contreras is definitely a good one. Drafted with the 5th overall pick in season 7, Contreras projects an above average arm and good pitch calling. He can also handle the bat, projecting splits in the 80's with power and eye in the 70's. Contreras should have the durability to play every day and has excellent makeup.

Erubiel Pujols
Jackson
Pollacks
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Cariaco, VE
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I guess the biggest question mark with Pujols is, what role does he fill? He's one of those tweeners who lack the stamina to be a regular starter and the durability to be an everyday reliever. But he will pitch in the major leagues and, as long as he is used correctly, should pitch very well. He projects excellent splits and control, 3 major league pitches, and great velocity.

But he also projects to 58 stamina and 20 durability. The best role for him would probably be as a tandem starter, where he could give you 3 or 4 innings every 3 or 4 days.

Up next the Jacksonville Fodder.

The Five Best Catchers in the World

2008-08-08T18:31:00.000-07:00

Doing a piece on the five best catchers in the world proved more difficult than I expected. Catchers are difficult. At what point do you put defense ahead of offense? And while the top three were no brainers, I might as well picked the last two at random because there were a lot of good choices and not a lot to distinguish one from another.

Before I get to the list there are a couple things you should know. I judged based on actual ratings/stats today. Not how good a guy will be in two years or how good he was two years ago. Also, salary played no part in this.

5. Juan Mota - Chicago

Mr. Mota you are flawed. But that 93 pitch call rating had me at hello. Your good splits, decent power, and high contact rates make up for your 49 eye. You are currently having your best offensive year since season 6, but I'm thinking you're due for a serious regression to the mean. Good thing I made this list early in the year.

4. Morris Lamb - Vancouver

Lamb started the year in AA but was promoted earlier this month and has jumped right into the starting job. He brings a very solid bat, putting up a career minor league line of .328/.435/.532. He currently has an 83 pitch call but a slightly below average arm.

3. Harry Tarraga - Jacksonville

Acquired in a trade from Jackson, Tarraga is a great hitting catcher with a slightly below average arm and a good pitch call rating. In parts of two major league seasons, Tarraga has put up an .871 OPS. He also has the durability to play every day.

2. J.P. Astacio - Burlington

Astacio is a stud. He currently has a 65/95 L/R split, 80 power, and a 61 eye. He also plays good defense with a 75/72 arm and a 74 pitch call.

1. Ray Shaw - Dover

There might be a better all around catcher in all of HBD, but I wouldn't bet on it. With his only flaw being a 69 durability rating, Shaw is a monster. 96 power, 80's splits, 80's eye to go with a 70/67 arm and a 65 pitch call. In his first full season in the majors he is putting up a .330/.385/.745 line. Here's to hoping the Soles keep him (and all their good young players) in the National league and away from my pitchers.

HOF

2008-08-07T09:58:00.001-07:00

The page for the Hall of Fame has been created, sort of. It still needs some layout work but I thought you guys would want to take a look.

The link is listed to the left with the other blog links.

The Official HOF Nomination Post

2008-08-06T19:13:00.000-07:00

To nominate a player for Hall of Fame consideration please post his name in the comments section.
On Friday 8/15 I will close the comments to this post and we will start the process.

One other thought, I think we should limit consideration to players who were in the big leagues for at least 6 years.

Hall of Fame - Update

2008-08-06T16:18:00.000-07:00

So I'm thinking this is how it will work:

Each owner will go through his franchise's history and see if there are any players they think are HOF quality. If in doubt send him in*, BUT, I would like us to be fairly choosy as to what players we let in, so don't be offended if he isn't included in the final debate. As young as this world is I can't imagine we have more than a couple retired players that really should be in right now.

*I haven't decided on how I want the players to be nominated. Starbuckdc posted a couple on the world chat, but that will be hard to keep organized. I may set up a nomination post and you guys can submit each player in the comments section. Don't worry about a link, I'll let you know if I can't find the player.

I'll sort through the nominations and do some of my own research and narrow the final list down to probably 8-10 players.

How the debate will work (volunteers needed):

Owners who feel strongly one way or the other about a player will be asked to submit an argument to the blog stating their case (you don't have to nominate the player to argue for or against the player).

Players without an argument from an owner will either be argued by me or eliminated, depending on how I feel about the player.

After each player has been argued or eliminated, you will have the chance to vote. Like the real HOF balloting, you will be able to vote for all, some, or none of the players nominated. Players receiving a certain percentage of the vote are in. The votes won't be anonymous, the voting will be done through the comments section of a post.

I'll set up a separate blog to be the Pioneer League Hall of Fame. All nominations, debates, and votes will be maintained on this blog, with only the players themselves on the HOF blog.

I can't stress enough that I think we should be as selective as possible. We don't want to set the bar low and right now the best players are still active.

No rush on this. Take your time. I'll keep you posted on when I need the names.

Who's Your Prospect - Hi I'm in...Delaware Edition

2008-08-06T14:22:00.000-07:00

Shep Ramsey
Dover
Soles
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Boston, MA
Position(s): 2B/CIF/COF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Most of the great young players in the Soles system are already in the big leagues - which is really unfortunate for the rest of the NL East. But they still have a few good ones down on the farm. Ramsey is an interesting player. Offensively he projects very well, mid 90's eye, mid 70's power, contact, and splits (80+ vL). In roughly one minor league season he has batted .384/.500/.740.

With a projected 80 range, he's currently listed as a second baseman. But with a glove projected only to the low 60's, it's doubtful he plays second in the big leagues. He's only 19 so the Soles have plenty of time to decide what they want to do with him.

Luis Aguilar
Dover
Soles
Age: 20	B/T: S/R
Born: Ciudad Bolivar, VE
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Aguilar is a solid young pitcher. He projects 70's/80's L/R, low 70's control, and good velocity and GB/FB rates. He projects as an overall 89, which is inflated by his projected 97 stamina. Three of his four pitches project to major league quality, with P1 projecting into the 80's.

Aguilar will be a good big league pitcher. He should eat up a ton of innings at a above average ERA. But don't be fooled by the 89 overall, he won't be contending for a CY Young award.

Up next the Jackson Pollacks

Hall of Fame

2008-08-06T11:00:00.001-07:00

I'm considering doing a Hall of Fame for our world. I haven't decided on how it will work, but I'm leaning toward nominating a group of retired players sometime around the all star break for you guys to either debate or vote on. I think the merits of the player will be based on their stats not ratings, and they will have to have been retired for 2 seasons to be eligible.

I may even set up a completely separate blog just for the HOF, with a link to it on this blog.

Let me know what you think.

What do you think?

2008-08-06T10:55:00.001-07:00

Now that you guys have had a chance to see several posts on different topics, do you have any suggestions? Is there anything you'd like to see that you haven't? Is there anything that you thought sucked, was boring, or a waste of time?

Do you want more day to day stuff - transactions, trades, game recaps?

More overall league stuff - team/player/prospect/playoff race analysis?

More polls? Off topic stuff?

I was considering doing a best 5 major leaguers at each position. Is that something you'd be interested in?

Please leave a comment letting me know.

Thanks,
Jason

Your 28 Game Review

2008-08-05T20:49:00.000-07:00

Just a quick glance at the standings to see where the real races are, who the surprise teams are, and who needs a swift kick in the pants.

In the AL, Kansas City has outplayed Madison in terms of run differential, but find themselves a game back in the standings. KC will probably pull away soon.

Burlington has been good, but also lucky. They surely can't expect to win every one run game the entire season. But they should still win the division easily.

Texas has been outscored this year. Only by eleven runs, but they need to find a way to stop the bleeding.

I was right in picking San Diego as a dark horse, they have the best run differential in the division and are only a game behind the lucky (7-2 in one run games but outscored overall) Mashin Mormons of Salt Lake City.

In the NL, Ottawa's pitching staff is dominating and it doesn't look like anyone else will have the fire power to catch them.

The Dover Soles are just crushing the ball and are pulling away from the slightly disappointing Turgid Warriors.

Tampa Bay and San Juan should race to the finish all year. It doesn't look like Memphis will be able to hang with them.

The NL West is extremely close, with all four teams within 1.5 games. And there isn't a real clear indication from the run differential as to how it's going to shake out. Vancouver will probably end up on top, but it will be interesting to watch.

Under The Hood: Velocity

2008-08-05T13:04:00.000-07:00

Since I started this blog I've been considering doing some work to try to get a better understanding of player ratings and how they impact performance.

One rating that I have always found intriguing is the pitcher's velocity. It's so important in real life and yet, if you spend a little time reading the HBD forums, you'll find that in general velocity has little impact on how good a pitcher is. You will also read that higher velocity ratings equal more strikeouts and more home runs allowed.

My initial hunch is that the forum posters are right. I've played this game for a few seasons and have seen little to indicate that velocity actually matters. But I want to be sure.

So how can I be sure? I pulled the current velocity rating of almost* every starting ML pitcher in our world. Then I compared that rating to the pitcher's career era. Right now alarms should be going off in your head. Comparing career numbers to a current rating is problematic since most velocity ratings have gone up or down at some point in each pitcher's career. In the interest of a large sample size I decided to accept this inaccuracy knowing that velocity usually doesn't tumble from a 90 to a 40.

*I excluded pitchers in their first ML season, as they only had around 50 innings pitched.

As you can see in the chart above, there is actually a slight negative correlation between velocity and ERA. Without running a regression I can't be sure, but I would guess that the correlation is purely coincidental and that velocity has no effect on pitcher ERA.

But that doesn't mean that velocity is unimportant. We all know that ERA isn't perfect, it is heavily influenced by luck and the defense behind the pitcher. So we have to keep looking.

Since strikeouts were mentioned in the forums and, in general, K's are a good indicator of a pitcher's effectiveness, strikeout rates are where I went next.

First, the problem. The developers have tweaked the game engine to fix problems with strikeout rates. There is no way to distinguish between the pitcher's k rate before and after the fix, so I'm not sure how much this really tells us.

But, if we take the numbers at face value, there is a correlation between higher velocity and more strikeouts. Obviously other factors come into play - pitch quality, effectiveness vs right and left, and control, but it looks like pitchers do record more strikeouts when they throw harder.

How important is this? In real life k rates are very important. They are a defense independent statistic that gives you a good look at how dominant a pitcher is. But in real life the difference between the guys with the best k rate and the ones with the worst is 5 or 6 strikeouts per 9 innings. That's easily over 100 strikeouts a season. A big difference. In HBD, the difference is much smaller (which is probably why they tweaked the engine). As you can see in the chart, the biggest difference is only about 3 k/9, and most are much closer.

So would it be worth paying a premium for a high velocity pitcher? I doubt it. Would it be smart to value velocity over ratings considered by most to be more important? Probably not. But all else being equal, does it hurt to to have a staff full of high velocity guys? According to forum "wisdom," maybe. They say a high velocity pitcher will give up more home runs. The logic being the harder you throw, the harder the ball flies off the bat.

As you can see, there is zero correlation between home runs and velocity. The forum posters were wrong about this. I'd guess that the pitcher's GB/FB rating, L/R effectiveness, control, and pitch quality all have a much bigger influence on the amount of homers allowed.

So how does velocity work? I don't know. It seems like a rating that should be important, but isn't. I do know that when evaluating pitchers, velocity is one of the last ratings I look at.

Who's Your Prospect - Mistake by the Lake Edition

2008-08-02T10:31:00.000-07:00

In season 7, the franchise that is now known as the Cleveland Frozen Ropes won 5 games.

Thanks jerkoff.

But things aren't all bad in the Forest City.

Felipe Polanco
Cleveland
Frozen Ropes
Age: 21	B/T: S/R
Born: Mount Horeb, WI
Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I'm a big fan of players with high splits and Polanco projects 82/77 along with a mid 70's eye, good speed, and adequate power for a middle infielder. Add the fact that Polanco projects as an above average SS, and the Frozen ropes have a great young player on their hands.

A couple little nit-picky points - He's 21 and in AAA, but 20 points away from his projected glove and arm accuracy ratings. His future value depends heavily on whether or not he comes close to his projected defensive ratings. If he does, he's a solid ML SS. If he doesn't, he's a low power 3rd baseman. Also, his projected mid 70's durability won't allow him to play everyday at the major league level - at least not at 100%.

Joe Shumpert
Cleveland
Frozen Ropes
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Waterville, MN
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I usually like to stick with starting pitchers for this topic, but by far, Shumpert is the Frozen Ropes best (only?) pitching prospect. Acquired from Ottawa in the Lima trade, Shumpert projects excellent control, solid splits, and 2 very good pitches (along with an average 3rd pitch). Only 19 and already in AAA, Shumpert will need to spend the rest of this year and at least half of next year in the minors before he is ready to pitch in the big leagues.

Up next the Dover Soles

Uneducated Guessing - Part 2

2008-08-01T09:00:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the slow down in posting this week. Work's been a bitch.

Last week I took a look at each division in the AL and made division and wild card winner predictions. This week the NL is up.

NL North

Last year the Ottawa Omebas ran away with their division, finishing 17 games ahead of the second place Milwaukee Timberjacks. The Omebas set out on their quest to repeat as division champs by acquiring perennial all star and former MVP, Tyrone Knight. Knight will replace Shawn Lilly in right field this season and will add even more power to a lineup that scored 990 runs last season, good for 2nd most in the NL.

The weird thing about Knight going to the Omebas is that Milwakee is the team that traded him there. I'm not one of those people that makes a big deal out of trading within your division, but that's an awful big bat to give to the team that outscored you by 100 runs last season. The Timberjacks probably don't have enough to overtake the Omebas this year, but did pick up some quality young prospects in the offseason.

When looking at Tacoma Aroma's runs scored/allowed last year, my first impression was that they had solid pitching and a weak offense. But then I remembered that the Aroma's play in a home park with -4 park effects across the board. When adjusted for home ballpark, the pitching looks a lot less impressive and the offense moves up to about average. They had a relatively inactive offseason and probably won't contend for the division title.

The Cincinnati Hit Kings don't have much of a chance to compete this year and should be looking to build for the future.

Winner: Omebas
Wild Card: None

NL East

The NL East should an exciting division this year. There is a possibility of a three team race for the division featuring two of the most dynamic offenses in the league.

The core of the Dover Soles that won 103 games last year remains intact, with the addition of closer Osvaldo Martinez the only major change.

After breaking out with 101 wins last season, the Chicago Turgid Warriors will try to overtake the Soles for the division title this year. Chicago's key pickup was Dean Jordan, a 22 year old rule 5 selection. Jordan should have no problem hitting ML pitching, it's getting into the lineup that will be the problem. Not suited for full time catching duty, Jordan might be able to hide at first base.

The third playoff team from this division last season, the New York New York Trekkies remained relatively inactive over the offseason, mostly resigning players that had explored the free agent market. The Trekkies are probably looking at another third place finish this year.

The franchise that is now the Cleveland Frozen Ropes looks to continue to rebuild after being driven into the ground by jamsing7 and tortured to death by reggiedeal. 75 wins would be a successful season.

Winner: Turgid Warriors
WC: Soles

NL South

No team in the South has ever won 100 games. With the addition of Hugh Boudreau this offseason, the San Juan Saints will have an improved offense and a good shot at winning 100.

The Tampa Bay Grass Cats have a shot at the division with their good young starting pitching, but will need to improve their offense by ~100 runs to keep up with the Saints.

The Memphis Flying Elvis' impressive offense will keep them within striking distance for most of the year, but they won't have the starting pitching to overtake either of the top two teams.

Another franchise that has been murdered by bad owners, the Jackson Pollacks will look to continue rebuilding.

Winner: Saints
WC: None

NL West

The Vancouver Beavers had kind of a down year last year, only winning 97 games. But msj22 is too good at stockpiling young talent to stay down for long. Look for this team to run away with the division, winning 105+ games.

The Santa Cruz Tsunami will certainly hold their own in the wild card race this season. Their strong pitching staff is lead by Jimmie Nunez, still one of the best pitchers in the league, but he's 35 and his window of opportunity is narrowing.

In order to challenge for a wild card spot, the Portland Gamblers will need to pick up an impact bat and replace the back end of their rotation will two major league capable starters. Outside of those improvements, the Gamblers will be lucky to finish more than a couple games over .500.

Last year the San Francisco ROIDS scored 718 runs, last in the NL. Without addressing this offensive deficiency, they don't have a chance to compete. Look for them to continue building for the future.

Winner: Beavers
WC: Tsunami

Update - Labels

2008-07-29T12:42:00.001-07:00

You may have noticed the labels listed on the left side of the blog underneath the archive. Each post now has a label that contains at minimum the cities of the teams discussed in the post. You can use the label to find all posts relating to your team or all posts in a series such as "Who's Your Prospect." Hope you like it.

The Grit, the Win, and the Run Batted In

2008-07-29T11:08:00.000-07:00

This is the first post in an occasional series where I will venture out of our little world and write about real life Major League Baseball.

Last summer a friend of my wife's came out from Arizona to visit. With her came her husband, a huge Atlanta Braves fan. As luck would have it, the Braves were in town to play the Padres, so the two of us escaped our wives one night and headed down to Petco Park.

We were having a good time until Jeff Francoeur came up to bat in the 2nd inning. The conversation went like this:

Wife's Friend's Husband: Francoeur is our best hitter.

Me: What?

WFH: He is, he leads the team in 2 out RBI's and that's the most important stat in baseball.

Me: [I admit, I could have handled this a little more diplomatically] That's the stupidest shit I've ever heard.

WFH: He's clutch, he helps the team when we really need it. He doesn't just rack up useless stats.

Me: Un-fucking-believable...Useless stats?...Useless like 2 out RBI? You know what Francoeur's good at? Making outs. Dude's career OBP is something like .300. He makes an out 70% of the time.

Francoeur grounds into double play.

Me: See, he just made TWO outs in one at bat.

The discussion went on like that for the next seven innings, pretty much ruining the night for both of us. At one point during the game he mentioned that he got a lot of his ideas from watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN. At the time, my work schedule didn't allow me to watch much Baseball Tonight, so I didn't know how truly bad it was (is).

Lately, I've been able to catch Baseball Tonight on almost a nightly basis. And it saddens me. It saddens me that I can't come home from work, crack a beer, turn on ESPN, and actually get some intelligent, relevant baseball analysis.

Nope. Instead I get John Kruk, Eric Young and some mix of Buster Olney and Steve Phillips. They talk about the importance of playing hard, playing like a team, the sacrifice bunt, and getting a lot of RBI. They debate the CY Young award using pitcher win-loss record as their primary measurement. They debate the MVP award based on the performance of the entire team. And it drives me up the motherfucking wall.

I don't have anything personal against these guys. They all seem like nice, likable people (well maybe not Phillips, he has douche written across his forehead in permanent marker). But they're idiots. And they spawn other idiots, like my wife's friend's husband, who believe that 2 out RBI is the most important stat in baseball.

Cleveland/Ottawa Trade

2008-07-29T07:23:00.000-07:00

Anytime a new owner comes into a league and starts trading prospects away it raises eyebrows. Especially when the prospect in question is arguably one of the best offensive prospects in the entire world. But toe64, the owner of the Frozen Ropes, isn't some crazy newb, so you have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The trade sent Ariel Lima and Otis Mullin to the Omebas in exchange for Esteban Molina, Andres Estrada, and Joe Shumpert.

Lima is by far the best player involved in the trade. He projects to a 98 power, 90's/70's L/R splits, and high 70's eye. He's only 20 and in splitting time between Rookie ball and low A, put up a .376/.483/.896* line last year.

*You know a guy can absolutely rake when you glance at his stats, mistake his SLG for his OPS and think, "well that's pretty good for his first year."

Mullin is a quality CF who has developed nicely after being used and abused by jamsing. He has nearly reached his offensive potential with ratings in the 60's and 70's. His 90+ range and 80+ glove make him a gold glove contender in center.

Estrada is the prize going back to Cleveland. Only 23 and already starting his fourth full major league season, Estrada has nearly achieved his offensive potential and is only a few points off his defensive potential. On the downside, Estrada is already into his first arbitration year and will get real expensive, real fast. Cleveland would be smart to lock him into a long term deal this offseason.

Molina is a 26 year old power hitting outfielder. He's a solid player but not a game changer. He will be eligible for arbitration this offseason and the Frozen Ropes will need to decide whether or not he's in their long term plans.

Shumpert is a young relief pitcher who projects as a major league set-up man or closer. He projects great control, solid splits, and has the durability to pitch nearly every day. At 19, I'm not sure why he's already in AAA, as he is still nearly 30 points off his projected control.

All in all, I really don't like this trade for the Ropes. By trading Lima, they get slightly better now, with both Estrada and Molina capable of playing in the majors, in exchange for the future. I want to give toe64 the benefit of the doubt, but this isn't a trade I would have made with a team so far from contention.

Who's Your Prospect - Hit Kings Edition

2008-07-28T14:48:00.000-07:00

At first glance, the Cincinnati franchise has all the makings for an absolutely disastrous farm system - lots of owner turnover, a high player payroll, and zero playoff appearances in eight seasons. Much to my surprise, there are some decent players in the Hit Kings system.

Steven Shannon
Cincinnati
Hit Kings
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Hampton, NH
Position(s): 1B/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Shannon is the best pure hitter in Cincinnati's minor leagues. He projects mid-90's power and eye, and an 80's/60's L/R split. His durability also projects very high. Shannon is very young for AA, and while the production may be there now, he doesn't have time to fully mature without repeating a level for several seasons. I doubt it will be a problem though, as he has good patience and will be able to contribute in the majors within 2-3 seasons.

Todd Cooper
Cincinnati
Hit Kings
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Cape May, NJ
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Cooper is another player who has been promoted very fast. Only 19 and already in AAA, Cooper projects 70/80 L/R splits, 90+ control, and mid-70's stamina. Hopefully Cooper is kept in the minor leagues for another couple seasons to complete his development. I doubt the Hit Kings will want to pay arbitration prices for a 23 year old still 10 points off his potential.

Up next the Cleveland Frozen Ropes.

Jackson/Santa Cruz Trade

2008-07-28T12:26:00.000-07:00

I just don't think Jackson got any better with this trade. They gave up Dmitri Springer and Chuck Messmer, two major league ready prospects, and get back Carlos Carrasco and Erubiel Pujols.

Statistically, Carrasco has been above average the last three years, eating up 190 innings with a sub-3.50 era. But you have to wonder how much of that was due to the Tsunami defense as opposed to his actual talent. Last year he only allowed a .254 BABIP which suggest he was often lucky and benefited from a solid defense. On the plus side, he's relatively young, never gets hurt, and has very solid ratings. It's a questionable pickup for a team that should be rebuilding. I doubt that Carrasco will still be around if and when the Pollacks are good.

Pujols should be a very good major league pitcher. He has great splits, control, and velocity, paired with very solid pitch ratings. On the downside, he will never have the stamina to be a full time starter, and with a durability projected into the low 20's, he won't be able to pitch everyday out of the bullpen.

In return for those two pitchers, Santa Cruz got two very good young players. Messmer currently has only a 63 glove and, at age 25, will probably never hit his projected mark of the mid-70's. But he could be adequate at 3rd base or a corner outfield spot, and when his glove improves a move to 2nd isn't out of the question. Messmer brings a good bat with excellent speed and baserunning ability.

Springer is the prize of the trade. At only 23, there is still a good chance he gets close to his projections and will be a decent third baseman if he does. He projects to good power, excellent splits, and a decent eye. He's scuffled a little in limited ML at bats but has a career minor league line of .350/.429/617.

Who's Your Prospect - Abe Froman Edition

2008-07-25T14:53:00.000-07:00

If you want to be the Sausage King of Chicago, you better have a big bat. The Chicago Turgid Warriors sure do.

Mark Miyakazi
Chicago
Turgid Warriors
Age: 20	B/T: S/R
Born: Kasugai, JP
Position(s): 1B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Miyakazi, the nearly $12 million dollar international free agent, was acquired through trade. In exchange for Miyakazi, Chicago gave up Miyakazi, Mark's older cousin from Korea.

Miyakazi is just a masher. Projected 80's contact, power, and eye, with splits projected into the mid 70's. Chicago could bring him up now and he'd probably make the All-Star team.

Edwin Grimsley
Chicago
Turgid Warriors
Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Born: Latimer, IA
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grimsley is a solid young pitching prospect. Young for his level, Grimsley projects excellent control, great stamina, and splits in the 70's. His pitches are average at best, which may limit his effectiveness as a big league starter.

Up next the Cincinnati Hit Kings

Uneducated Guessing - Part 1

2008-07-25T09:04:00.000-07:00

As Heidi Klum likes to say on my wife's favorite TV show*, "ah you een, oh ah you out?"

*It's Project Runway. Feel free to call bullshit. It IS my wife's favorite show but somehow I end up watching it too.

So, how will each division shake out?

AL North

Look for Kansas City Tornados to run away with the division. The Madison Muskies, Minnesota Gophers, and Montreal Wanderers will all work to improve on last season but the new owners have their work cut out for them. Not one of the three franchises has had a winning record since season 5.

Winner: Tornados
Wild Card: None

AL East

It was nucking futs how good the Burlington Spliffsters were last season. They finished 31 games ahead of the New York Big Bads who won 96 games. The Big Bads were a little unlucky last year, going 13-18 in one run games and underplayed their pythagorean by four games.

The Syracuse Barge Canals expect to make a push with newly signed pitchers Neifi Limon, Miller Witt, and Wil White but probably don't have enough to overtake the Spiffsters or the Big Bads. The Augusta Aces look for a fresh start in Maine after years of futility in other cities.

Winner: Spliffsters
Wild Card: Big Bads

AL South

AL South, you are one brutal sonofabitch. Last season the Jacksonville Fodder continued to unleash the fury on the rest of the league, overtaking the defending World Series Champion Texas Chainsaws for the first time in seven seasons. Back, and arguably better than last year with the acquisition of Harry Tarraga, the Fodder should repeat as division champs. The Nashville Cats look to continue improving around a solid base of good young players.

The real question is can the Chainsaws avoid sliding further and hold off the Louisville Red Strikers for the last wild card spot, or is it the beginning of the end for one of the most dominate franchises in this world's history?

Winner: Fodder
Wild Card: Red Strikers

AL West

The AL West is an interesting division. Can the Omaha Steaks pull it together and challenge the Las Vegas Card Sharks like they did in season 6? Or will Vegas run away with it like it has three out of the last four seasons? For Omaha to make a run, they need to score more runs. Their 791 RS last season was third to last in the AL. To correct this they have promoted a couple big bats from their minor league system. Ivan Nieves and Wilt Roberts should provide some much needed pop. Alex Astacio has been called up to work out of the bullpen and should help out a staff that had an ERA of 5.22 last year.

The Salt Lake City Mashin' Mormons will continue to crush the ball but are only a contender if they can improve their pitching. The San Diego Friars have completely revamped their pitching staff, bringing in several veterans through trade and free agency, along with a couple new bats. They could be the surprise of the division. Watch out for this dark horse team.

Winner: Card Sharks
Wild Card: None

Next week*: The NL

*Yeah I know the season will have already started. Tough shit.

Who's Your Prospect - Spliffster Edition

2008-07-24T15:02:00.000-07:00

In season 8, the Spliffsters won 127 games. I would be lying if I said that didn't hope going into this that their minor league system would be as dry as the Griswold's turkey dinner.

Not the case.

Ronnie Meyers
Burlington
Spliffsters
Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Born: Tom Bean, TX
Position(s): C
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Spliffsters have Meyers just hanging out in AAA waiting for the day this guy forgets how to hit - or gets hit by a bus.

Not only is Meyers a very good defensive catcher but he is also a great hitter, posting a career minor league OPS of over 1.000. Other than his low health rating, the only "flaw" you could possibly point out is his projected 45 vR rating.

Jayson Mathews
Burlington
Spliffsters
Age: 22	B/T: S/R
Born: Tallahassee, FL
Position(s): P (SP5)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Most of the top pitching prospects in Burlington's system are relievers. Mathews is the exception. The former first round pick was acquired season 8 from Santa Cruz in exchange for Hal McEnerney. Mathews brings splits projected in the 70's, excellent control, and a 90+ pitch rating. Mathews pitched well for his High A team last year and will probably be moved up to at least AA this year.

Up next the Chicago Turgid Warriors

Season 9 Rule 5* Draft

2008-07-24T12:03:00.000-07:00

*It's the rule 5 draft, not the rule V draft. Sorry, but it bugs me when people write rule V.

Anyway. This season's rule 5 draft was a little boring. Due to neglect, incompetence, or a misunderstanding of the rules, past rule 5 drafts have delivered star prospects such as Jose Bennett, Rico Rivera, and Brady Clarke.

No stars this year, but there were a few bright spots:

Taken with the second pick* by Madison, Carl McGlinchy lacks the defensive skills to play SS full time, but is capable of serving as a solid backup to any position on the field other than catcher. His above average eye and acceptable contact ratings should allow him to maintain a decent on-base percentage off the bench.

*I know he was taken first overall, but the draft report shows him as the second pick since the team with the first pick passed. In the interest of simplicity I'm going to use the number listed on the draft report.

Omaha's Clark Reitsma doesn't hit for much power, but the 11th pick can fly. His current speed rating is 91 and projects to go even higher. As a left hander he's limited to the outfield and first base, but his range and glove should produce great results in the outfield corners and be adequate for spot starts in center.

Tom Greene is a right handed Reitsma. Taken with the 18th pick by Santa Cruz, Greene is slightly less desirable than Reitsma as a hitter but can be played at 2nd, giving his manager more flexibility.

New York's Ahmed Nelson has a great right handed split rating but will it be enough to overcome an eye rating in the 20's? I had the 20th pick high on my list before the draft.

Louisville took Carl Fowler with the 23rd pick. He has solid splits, a good eye, and passable power. His primary role will be as a fourth outfielder.

With the 25th pick, the Big Bads picked up a solid outfielder in Earl Turner. 70's power, 60's right handed split, and a ton of speed should make Turner a great role player.

Dean Jordan is a stud. Taken by Chicago with the 27th pick, Jordan is expected to rake with his high splits and great eye. Completely missed by more than one team (including mine), Chicago got the steal of the draft. As a catcher, Jordan is a great DH. But since Chicago is a National League team, they will have to get his bat into the lineup somehow - either by enduring his complete lack of arm accuracy at catcher or hiding him at first and hoping his whopping 1 range allows him to cover the bag before the runner gets there.

You may have noticed the lack of pitchers in this review. It was due to the lack of pitching talent available in the draft. There may be one or two pitchers that put up mediocre numbers, but most will probably end up on the waiver wire if they haven't already.

Who's Your Prospect

2008-07-24T11:30:00.000-07:00

The first in a series highlighting 2 top prospects - one pitcher, one position player - from each franchise. Leading off we have the Augusta Aces.

Tommy Steinbach
Augusta
Aces
Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Born: Blue Ridge, GA
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Steinbach is easily the Aces' top prospect. Taken with the fifth overall pick in the season eight draft, he projects as having top notch control and effectiveness versus right handed hitters. Steinbach's high velocity rating helped him strike out 110 batters in only 105 innings in his first professional season.

There are just a couple areas of concern. Steinbach throws only three pitches, and only two of those project as major league quality. Also, Steinbach may be an injury risk as his health rating projects to only the mid 50's.

Expect to see Steinbach in the majors sometime around season 12 or 13.

Willie Soto
Augusta
Aces
Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Born: Pagosa Springs, CO
Position(s): LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Selecting a position player to highlight wasn't as easy a selection as Steinbach was. Soto is probably ready for the major leagues now with his 80+ power and solid eye but is blocked in the outfield by a couple veterans including a very similar player in Joe Rossy. Soto lacks the defensive skills to move to any position other than first base.

Look for Soto to see major league time this year if the Aces can trade one of the veterans blocking him.

Up next the Burlington Spliffsters.

1st Post - The Hello

2008-07-24T07:43:00.000-07:00

I figured that since we are now heading into season 9 and no one else has started a blog, I wouldn't be stepping on any toes by starting one myself. So here you go.

The goal of this blog is to provide a little (very little) analysis of things around the league. Prospects, trades, free agent signings, the draft, the all star game, the playoffs, and anything else I have time for.

I'm going to start with a series of posts looking at a couple prospects from each franchise, moving alphabetically down the list of teams. The analysis I provide will be based on the projected ratings that I can see. If you disagree and would like to deliver a counter argument, great. Let me know and I'll be happy to let you post it.

Also, regarding my analysis, I'm going to, as the saying goes, call it like I see it. I won't go out of my way to be rude or mock someone, but if you draft a pitcher with 20's splits in the first round I may mention that said pitcher sucks ass. Oh yeah, I may cuss a little too.

That's it. Any comments, questions, suggestions, or requests to post are welcome. You can sitemail _nuke_ at What If Sports or email hbd.nuke@gmail.com.

Jason